Forecasting integrity
Forecasting credibility assessed ahead of Series D raise
B2B SaaS · Late stage
The challenge
The company was preparing for a Series D raise at a significant valuation step-up. The board wanted to ensure that the financial forecasts being presented to investors were grounded in organizational reality — specifically, that the sales leadership team had the depth and process maturity to deliver the growth trajectory the model assumed.
What Wexler Gray surfaced
Forecasting Integrity scored at 62, a credible score that nonetheless concealed meaningful variance: the enterprise sales team scored at 74 while the mid-market and SME teams scored at 48 and 39 respectively, suggesting the overall number masked structural risk in the channels the growth model depended on most
Operator assessment identified a consistent pattern in the mid-market team: forecast submissions were driven by individual rep judgment rather than systematic stage-gate criteria, creating a structural tendency to over-report in the mid-funnel
Bearing interpretation recommended the board require the CFO to build a conservative case into the investor model that weighted enterprise pipeline more heavily than mid-market, and to be transparent with investors about the relative maturity of the two revenue streams
Outcome
The board adopted the Bearing recommendation, presenting investors with a tiered revenue confidence framework that distinguished enterprise ARR (high confidence) from mid-market and SME ARR (building confidence). Investors responded positively to the transparency. The Series D closed above the original target valuation, with the honest forecasting posture cited by the lead investor as a differentiating factor.
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